The industrial real estate market in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (ZMCDMX) maintained a robust performance during the second quarter of 2026, fueled by historic demand for logistics spaces, intense construction activity, and sustained inventory growth. Simultaneously, the uncertainty generated by the annual reviews of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is beginning to alter the composition of demand without curbing long-term investments.
USMCA Continues to Drive Industrial Market Growth
This is revealed in the latest ‘Market View Industrial Mexico City 2Q 2026’ report, prepared by CBRE, which includes a special analysis titled ‘Market Flash T-MEC.’ In this analysis, the consultancy asserts that despite a cautious environment, the trade agreement remains fully in force and continues to provide the conditions that have made Mexico one of North America’s leading manufacturing destinations.
CBRE notes that, contrary to some market perceptions, there are currently no modifications to the rules of origin, tariffs, investment, energy, or labor provisions stipulated in the USMCA. Although the automatic extension of the agreement for another 16 years remains pending, the mechanism continues to be valid and could be activated later in accordance with the agreement’s provisions.
However, the annual reviews have introduced an additional factor of uncertainty for some industries, particularly the automotive sector, where several investment projects remain on hold pending regulatory clarity.
In contrast, the firm observes increased dynamism in projects associated with the technology sector, especially those related to semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and data centers. These segments are beginning to gain traction within industrial real estate demand.
The consultancy anticipates a gradual recovery in demand. Initially, this will be driven by light manufacturing and diversified industrial activities, while heavy manufacturing will regain its pace as certainty about the agreement’s future increases, mirroring the behavior observed during the renegotiation of the then-NAFTA.
Furthermore, it highlights that trade between Mexico and the United States continues to grow, confirming that the reorganization process of global supply chains maintains the country’s attractiveness as a manufacturing platform.
Shifting Tenant Profile: Tech and Diversified Manufacturing Emerge
The study identifies a significant change in the composition of demand for industrial spaces. Active requirements show a greater participation from diversified manufacturing companies, whose presence increased by 10.6 percentage points, while the logistics and transport sectors increased their share by 6.6 percentage points.
In parallel, Mexico is strengthening its position within the global technology industry. Alongside Taiwan and Vietnam, the country is increasing its participation as a supplier of computer equipment to the United States, driving new clusters linked to semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and data center infrastructure.
In the automotive sector, although Mexico maintains a strategic position within the North American supply chain and high trade volumes with the United States, CBRE believes this segment has entered a stabilization phase after several years of accelerated growth.
Historic Demand for Industrial Spaces in Mexico City
Beyond the international context, Mexico City’s industrial market continues to show robust indicators. During the first half of the year, cumulative gross absorption reached 1.01 million square meters, representing a 59% annual increase and the highest volume recorded for a first half since market records began.
Activity was primarily driven by pre-leasing operations, which accounted for more than half of the transactions during the period, reflecting companies’ confidence in projects still under construction.
The Zumpango-AIFA corridor consolidated as the main growth hub, concentrating 44% of commercial activity, followed by the Cuautitlán-Tepotzotlán-Tultitlán (CTT) corridor, with a share close to 39 percent.
Although net absorption was below that recorded a year earlier, CBRE believes this indicator will improve as various developments currently under pre-lease contracts become operational.
Inventory Sees Fastest Growth in Years, Construction Remains Dynamic
The increase in demand has been accompanied by a rapid expansion of supply. During the second quarter, 348,146 square meters of new industrial space were incorporated, bringing the total inventory to 12.97 million square meters, equivalent to an 8.3% annual growth.
In the last twelve months, more than 900,000 square meters were added, mainly in the Zumpango-AIFA, CTT, and Last Mile corridors, reinforcing the leadership of these areas within the metropolitan market.
CBRE estimates that, if the current construction pace is maintained, by the end of 2026, the inventory could approach 13.67 million square meters, with the incorporation of at least another 700,000 square meters.
Construction activity continues to be one of the main indicators of confidence. During the second quarter alone, construction began on more than 500,000 square meters, of which approximately 70% already have pre-lease agreements, significantly reducing commercial risk for developers.
New projects are concentrated mainly in the Zumpango-AIFA, Cuautitlán, and Vallejo-Azcapotzalco corridors, where demand for logistics and distribution spaces continues to grow.
Increased Supply Leads to Higher Availability, Logistics Dominates Demand
The accelerated increase in inventory also led to an increase in space availability. The vacancy rate reached 5.1%, equivalent to approximately 656,000 square meters available, mainly due to the incorporation of new buildings and some vacancies recorded during the semester.
The CTT corridor accounts for nearly two-thirds of the available space, followed by Zumpango-AIFA and Last Mile. However, CBRE considers this increase a natural adjustment resulting from strong supply growth, not a market weakening, as the volume of transactions continues to show high levels.
The logistics sector continues to be the main driver of the industrial real estate market in the capital. During the first half, it accounted for 63% of the commercialized area, followed by e-commerce companies, with 33%, while manufacturing represented about 5%.
Regarding the origin of companies that conducted new operations or renewals during the second quarter, companies from South Korea, France, Mexico, and Argentina stood out.
Foreign Investment Strengthens the Market Outlook
The report also emphasizes that the investment environment continues to favor industrial development. During the first quarter of 2026, Mexico attracted 23.591 billion dollars in Foreign Direct Investment, an annual growth of 10.4%. The United States remained the country’s main investor, followed by Spain.
Nationally, Mexico City and the State of Mexico led the reception of foreign capital, a situation that continues to strengthen the demand for industrial infrastructure in the region.
For CBRE, the outlook for the second half of the year remains positive. The availability of land reserves in corridors such as Zumpango-AIFA and Huehuetoca-Tepeji, along with new developments announced in Cuautitlán, Tlalnepantla, Tepotzotlán, Hidalgo, and Iztapalapa-Tláhuac, will sustain market expansion.
At the same time, the consultancy believes that although USMCA reviews will continue to influence investment decisions in the coming months, the agreement continues to offer a framework of stability for regional trade. As certainty increases, industrial demand – especially heavy manufacturing – could regain the dynamism observed before the start of the current review process of the trade agreement.
